Writer believes Detroit Lions had a bottom-10 offseason—here’s why he’s wrong (2024)

We live in different times now. The Detroit Lions are considered one of the best-run organizations right now, and they’re a common pick for serious Super Bowl contender this year. At the top of the organization, general manager Brad Holmes is viewed as one of the best at his position, and many of his decisions have gone unquestioned after proving a lot of doubters wrong last year.

But ESPN’s Seth Walder stands in defiance of conventional norm. This week, Walder graded every team’s 2024 offseason, and he gave the Lions a C. Only five other teams (Falcons, Vikings, Cowboys, Raiders, Saints) had worse grades than that.

Walder’s argument basically boils down to one decision and one decision only: the Lions’ four-year, $212 million extension for Jared Goff.

“It’s not a move I can endorse at that price,” Walder wrote. “And it has the potential to hamper the organization for years. Goff is a divisive talent, but I think most would agree he’s not a top-10 QB and that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson deserves a fair share of credit for Detroit’s offensive success. If Johnson leaves for a head-coaching job in the near future, how effective would Goff be? It’s a fair question.”

While I do believe it’s a fair question, I don’t think it’s entirely fair to just hand all of the offense’s success to Ben Johnson. It overlooks the hard work Goff has put in to become a better player, a better student of the game, and a better pre-snap quarterback. I also believe it’s much more debatable whether Goff is a top-10 quarterback than Walder suggests. From purely a statistical standpoint, Goff certainly has a very strong argument for being a top-10 passer.

What makes Walder’s grade particularly confounding is how he reacted to the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offseason. Just last week, the Jaguars topped the Lions by handing Trevor Lawrence a five-year, $275 million extension. Certainly this should be viewed as reckless as Detroit’s move considering Lawrence’s recent struggles. Let’s see what Walder thinks.

“Though it’s big money, Lawrence’s deal is not among the top 10 contracts in terms of APY over the past decade after adjusting for cap inflation,” Walder wrote. “It’s closer in line to Dak Prescott’s deal in 2021, according to historical contract data from OverTheCap. I’m a believer in Lawrence and think signing him now makes sense—the price will go up next year because of cap inflation but also because he’ll likely be coming off a better season.”

A slightly different tone, huh?

Listen, I get it. Lawrence is still very young and there’s certainly an understandable perception that he has top-10, if not top-five potential in this league. But that’s all it is at this point: potential. Meanwhile, Jared Goff has proven he can lead a top-five offense several times with two different teams. The drastic difference in reactions to these major contracts is absolutely not warranted.

And to make matters even worse, Walder suggests a completely removed-from-reality course of action for the Lions instead.

“Had the Lions let Goff play out his 2024 deal (roughly $27 million in cash) and then given him the nonexclusive franchise tag in 2025 and again in 2026 and again in 2027, that would be roughly 1 year/$27 million or 2/$69M or 3/$120M or 4/$193M, based on OverTheCap’s 2025 franchise tag projections and assuming a 20% raise each year after that for future tags. With this deal, it’s either 1/$119M or 2/$154M or 3/$172M or 4/$194M or 5/$241M. The Lions lost their flexibility and now need Goff to play on this contract through 2027 just to break even—or through 2028 to get any value—relative to the tag.”

If teams were run completely on spreadsheets, the franchise tag may make the most financial sense. But it is absurd to even hypothetically suggest the Lions apply the franchise tag to their quarterback three consecutive seasons. For one, it would almost certainly result in a holdout from your franchise quarterback—which is as big of a distraction as you could create for an NFL team. Secondly, so much of the Lions’ success over the past two years has been based on developing a culture where players are respected and rewarded for good play and hard work. Think of the message it would send if the Lions got into penny-pinching matches with Goff every offseason.

Even if Walder’s point is simply that Goff’s contract should be less than the price of three consecutive franchise tags, why? Why is that the arbitrary mark of a valuable contract? Why isn’t Lawrence’s deal measured to that same standard?

The oddest part is that Walder seems to actually like the rest of the Lions’ offseason. He agrees with their decisions to give Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown massive extensions. He likes the free agency signings of Kevin Zeitler, DJ Reader, and Marcus Davenport. He thinks it was smart to aggressively fill their cornerback need in the draft. He just seems oddly stuck on the Goff contract.